What Economists Don't Really Agree On

A few days ago I posted a link to Harvard economist Greg Mankiw's blog post listing a number of economic principles about which economists generally agree. Number 4 on that list was,

4. Fiscal policy (e.g., tax cut and/or government expenditure increase) has a significant stimulative impact on a less than fully employed economy. (90%)

What I didn't include in my post was the following from Mankiw's post:

"Note that the proposition about fiscal policy (#4) does not distinguish between taxes and spending as the best tool for purposes of macro stabilization. Maybe that question should be added in a future poll. I doubt, however, that the answer would make it onto this list of widely agreed upon propositions."

Our government isn't very good at distinguishing between taxes or spending as the best tool either. What happened during President Bush's terms was a combination of both fiscal policies. Remember, the US was already in a recession when Pres. Bush took office. That recession was exacerbated by our last "worst economic crisis in decades" brought about by 9/11. The government responded by cutting taxes, increasing tax rebates to the poor, and increasing spending like never before.

Now we have a new "worst economic crisis in decades" and our government is responding in much the same way. Huge government spending coupled with tax cuts. A strategy destined to increase our national debt like never before. Again.

To those opposed to the huge increase in government spending, many are asking where were you 8 years ago when Republicans did the same thing. First, I think it's important to point out that even Republicans don't like national Republicans right now - largely because of the spending of the last 8 years. But perhaps more educational is to say that I suppose national Republicans are now doing exactly what national Democrats did during the President Bush years. I distinctly remember our current Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi pledging on Meet the Press that Democrats would reinstate Pay As You Go spending habits should they retake Congress. She and her colleagues were outraged (outraged!) at the deficit spending that Republicans were doing.

The pendulum of power may have swung since then, but the economic policies, and opposing party political rhetoric, haven't really changed all that much.

What Economists Do Agree On

From Greg Mankiw:

Here is the list, together with the percentage of economists who agree:

1. A ceiling on rents reduces the quantity and quality of housing available. (93%)
2. Tariffs and import quotas usually reduce general economic welfare. (93%)
3. Flexible and floating exchange rates offer an effective international monetary arrangement. (90%)
4. Fiscal policy (e.g., tax cut and/or government expenditure increase) has a significant stimulative impact on a less than fully employed economy. (90%)
5. The United States should not restrict employers from outsourcing work to foreign countries. (90%)
6. The United States should eliminate agricultural subsidies. (85%)
7. Local and state governments should eliminate subsidies to professional sports franchises. (85%)
8. If the federal budget is to be balanced, it should be done over the business cycle rather than yearly. (85%)
9. The gap between Social Security funds and expenditures will become unsustainably large within the next fifty years if current policies remain unchanged. (85%)
10. Cash payments increase the welfare of recipients to a greater degree than do transfers-in-kind of equal cash value. (84%)
11. A large federal budget deficit has an adverse effect on the economy. (83%)
12. A minimum wage increases unemployment among young and unskilled workers. (79%)
13. The government should restructure the welfare system along the lines of a “negative income tax.” (79%)
14. Effluent taxes and marketable pollution permits represent a better approach to pollution control than imposition of pollution ceilings. (78%)

If we could get the American public to endorse all these propositions, I am sure their leaders would quickly follow, and public policy would be much improved. That is why economics education is so important.