Monday, October 13, 2008
What Caused the Bank Failures?
Instead of thinking, "hmm, I wonder if it's a good idea to rely so much on sub-prime mortgages?", Fannie Mae executives were painstakingly planning and executing the hilarious practical joke of covering an entire car in Post-It notes.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Joe Biden=In Command of Facts=Blithering Balderdash
Mark Steyn:
Senator Biden was glib and fluent and in command of the facts — if by “in command of the facts” you mean “talks complete blithering balderdash and hogwash.” He flatly declared that Obama never said he would meet Ahmadinejad without preconditions. But, on Debate Night, the official Obama website was still boasting that he would meet Ahmadinejad “without preconditions”. He said America spends more in a month in Iraq than it’s spent in seven years in Afghanistan. Er, America has spent over $700 billion in Afghanistan since 2001. It’s spending about $10 billion a month in Iraq. But no matter. To demonstrate his command of the “facts”, Senator Biden sportingly offered up his own instant replays:
“My friend John McCain voted 422 times against tax cuts for the middle classes. Let me repeat that so the American people are clear on this. My friend John McCain voted 673 times against tax cuts for the middle classes.”
The problem was that it all sounded drearily senatorial. Mention any global crisis — civil war in Bosnia, genocide in Darfur, Russian aggression in Georgia, the lack of five-star restaurants in Wales — and Biden has been there, usually within the last two weeks, and always at public expense. What the American taxpayer gets for the Emir of Delaware’s frequent-flyer miles is harder to discern. Biden was doing his best to turn in a decent karaoke version of Lloyd Bentsen, but, unfortunately, Governor Palin declined to play Dan Quayle. That left Joe sounding like an ancient pol being generically vice-presidential. Sarah, at her best, sounded like the citizen-politician this country’s Founders intended. She hasn’t voted 397 times against this or that in the U.S. Senate, because she’s been running a state, and a town, and a commercial fishing operation. She’s a doer, not a talker, which is why so many of my fellow professional talkers disdain her.
When Regular Joe Six-Pack Bluecollar Biden tried to match her on the Main Street cred, it rang slightly wacky. “Look,” he said, “All you have to do is go down Union Street with me in Wilmington or go to Katie’s Restaurant or walk into Home Depot with me, where I spend a lot of time.” Why? Is he moonlighting as a checkout clerk on the evening shift? Or is he stalking that nice lady in Lighting Fixtures? As for Katie’s Restaurant, ah, I’m sure it was grand but apparently it closed in 1990. In the Diner of the Mind, the refills are endless and Senator Joe is sitting shootin’ the breeze over a cuppa joe with a couple other regular joes on adjoining stools while Betty-Jo, the sassy waitress who’s tough as nails but with a heart of gold, says Ol’ Joe, the short-order cook who’s doing his Sloppy Joes just the way the Senator likes ‘em, really appreciates the way that, despite 78 years in Washington, Joe Biden is still just the same regular Joe Six-Pack he was when he and Norman Rockwell first came in for a sarsaparilla all those years ago. But, alas, while he was jetting off for one-to-one talks with the Deputy Tourism Minister of Waziristan, the old neighborhood changed.
The Chicago Way
Editorial from John Kass at the Chicago Tribune
The Chicago Way is a road the Beltway media establishment dare not travel. It must frighten them. It conflicts with their fairy tale about Obama as reformer, and they're much too busy rummaging through garbage cans in Alaska to bother about Chicago's political alleys.
But any child in Illinois knows the Chicago Way leads through the most politically corrupt city in America, in a politically corrupt state, where muscle trumps reason, where Democratic warlords brazenly promote their offspring into public office, where even souls are offered up for sale.
The national media have never wanted to understand, much less expose, political corruption here, or examine how Obama prospered under the Daley machine's guidance. A trip down the Chicago Way would force them to re-examine their ridiculous narrative that sets Obama as a political reformer riding a white horse, or is that a winged unicorn?
Thursday, October 09, 2008
Does Eagle Mountain Need UTA?
Eagle Mountain is about 45 miles from Salt Lake City. It is very much a bedroom community, with most people living in EM and commuting to work in either SLC or the Provo area to the southeast. It is such a new area that roads are often overcrowded, as supply has not kept up with demand.
So in comes the Utah Transit Authority (UTA) to provide express bus services to Eagle Mountain and its neighbor, Saratoga Springs. It will cost an additional quarter-cent in sales tax as well as a $200,000 a year federal grant for the first three years of the new route. After that 3 year period is up, UTA says FrontRunner will be at Thanksgiving Point, "boosting the service". At that point, the route would likely change from going to Salt Lake to just going to the FrontRunner stop.
UTA claims that the bus service would get 25% of commuter traffic, reducing congestion. Lehi, which has seen its city streets explode with traffic as EM and SS grew, would see a 15% drop in traffic, according to the UTA. However, some have expressed deep skepticism in those numbers, citing historical data showing traffic capture of only 1-2%. The heavy commuting nature of Eagle Mountain would likely mean higher commuter-transit usage than other areas, but wouldn't push the numbers quite that significantly.
Cost for this bus line includes:
-$600,000 in federal money
-sales tax money, which the city estimates would have been $10,000 in'07-'08
-the regular $4 per ride, $160 a month bus fare.
Once the two cities approve the bus lines and are annexed into the UTA taxing district, they are guaranteed to pay the tax, but are not guaranteed the bus service. That is up to the UTA commissioners to decide, though it's very unlikely that the service would be removed.
My question is, is UTA necessary? Currently it costs me $160 a month to drive to work in Salt Lake City, and it takes me about an hour. With my carpool partner, the cost is cut in half to $80 a month, and driving in the carpool lane saves time. Now, that doesn't include the cost of buying or maintaining the car. But I would own it even if I didn't commute to work. Maintenance costs obviously are increased because of the increased mileage, but I do it myself and it isn't substantial. With even one more carpool partner, the effective maintenance costs would be decreased further.
Is there a more targeted, more efficient way to provide for mass transit than UTA? I know and understand the benefits of mass transit. What I don't understand is how two passengers in a vehicle costs less than a bus full of people. Also, in addition to my own monthly fare cost, plus the increased sales tax, why must people in Arkansas or South Dakota foot the $600,000 bill to subsidize my commute?
Eagle Mountain residents will vote on the issue in November, and the question I'd like answered by then is, is there an alternative to UTA-directed mass transit?
Sources used:
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,700264432,00.html
http://ssutah.blogspot.com/2008/08/express-bus-plan-short-on-time.html
http://www.davidlifferth.com/site/content_info.php?content_id=2016
http://www.davidlifferth.com/site/content_info.php?content_id=2027
So in comes the Utah Transit Authority (UTA) to provide express bus services to Eagle Mountain and its neighbor, Saratoga Springs. It will cost an additional quarter-cent in sales tax as well as a $200,000 a year federal grant for the first three years of the new route. After that 3 year period is up, UTA says FrontRunner will be at Thanksgiving Point, "boosting the service". At that point, the route would likely change from going to Salt Lake to just going to the FrontRunner stop.
UTA claims that the bus service would get 25% of commuter traffic, reducing congestion. Lehi, which has seen its city streets explode with traffic as EM and SS grew, would see a 15% drop in traffic, according to the UTA. However, some have expressed deep skepticism in those numbers, citing historical data showing traffic capture of only 1-2%. The heavy commuting nature of Eagle Mountain would likely mean higher commuter-transit usage than other areas, but wouldn't push the numbers quite that significantly.
Cost for this bus line includes:
-$600,000 in federal money
-sales tax money, which the city estimates would have been $10,000 in'07-'08
-the regular $4 per ride, $160 a month bus fare.
Once the two cities approve the bus lines and are annexed into the UTA taxing district, they are guaranteed to pay the tax, but are not guaranteed the bus service. That is up to the UTA commissioners to decide, though it's very unlikely that the service would be removed.
My question is, is UTA necessary? Currently it costs me $160 a month to drive to work in Salt Lake City, and it takes me about an hour. With my carpool partner, the cost is cut in half to $80 a month, and driving in the carpool lane saves time. Now, that doesn't include the cost of buying or maintaining the car. But I would own it even if I didn't commute to work. Maintenance costs obviously are increased because of the increased mileage, but I do it myself and it isn't substantial. With even one more carpool partner, the effective maintenance costs would be decreased further.
Is there a more targeted, more efficient way to provide for mass transit than UTA? I know and understand the benefits of mass transit. What I don't understand is how two passengers in a vehicle costs less than a bus full of people. Also, in addition to my own monthly fare cost, plus the increased sales tax, why must people in Arkansas or South Dakota foot the $600,000 bill to subsidize my commute?
Eagle Mountain residents will vote on the issue in November, and the question I'd like answered by then is, is there an alternative to UTA-directed mass transit?
Sources used:
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/1,5143,700264432,00.html
http://ssutah.blogspot.com/2008/08/express-bus-plan-short-on-time.html
http://www.davidlifferth.com/site/content_info.php?content_id=2016
http://www.davidlifferth.com/site/content_info.php?content_id=2027
Wednesday, October 08, 2008
Jameson Jones Fund
As reported at the Daily Herald, and repeated here,
For months, Mark Myers nursed the pumpkin patch in the empty lot next to his Saratoga Springs house.I found out today that the pumpkin sale was only one day - last Saturday. But the reporter of the story told me that there is a fund set up at Mountain America Credit Union. You can go to any branch and ask to contribute to the Jameson Jones fund.
It's been a tradition in the neighborhood for years now; when the pumpkins are plump and orange, kids come running to pick their favorite ones to take home. Back when it all started, next-door neighbor Cindy Jones helped plant the first seeds.
"This is something I just do for fun, just for a hobby," Myers said.
But this year, Myers tended to his pumpkins with a specific purpose. In February, he and the rest of the tight-knit neighborhood reeled from news that the Joneses' youngest child, a 3-year-old boy with Down syndrome named Jameson, was diagnosed with leukemia.
Myers and others around the block hatched a plan: The pumpkin sale this year would be a fundraiser to help the family. The neighbors sought donations for the sale and eventually secured some extra pumpkins, corn stalks and straw bales. The last step was telling the Joneses the sale was for them.
"From the moment they decided to plant the seeds, they knew they'd be donating this money to Jameson," neighbor Heather Anderson said. "Everybody in the community pitched in on this, and they had no idea the whole time."
Myers said he'll never forget the day he asked Jameson's father, Troy, to meet him in his driveway.
"He said, 'There's probably other people who could use it,'" he said. "I said, 'No, not as much as you guys could use it. You guys have been through hell and back.'"
Consistent rain didn't stop people from coming out for the sale Saturday afternoon. As friends and new faces alike paced the rows of pumpkins looking for the perfect one, Jameson got a wheelbarrow ride down the street from Myers.
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Weezer - The Good Life
A gold star to whoever identifies the actress who plays the delivery girl in this video.
Oh, and youtube fans must watch Weezer's "Pork and Beans" video.
Bailout? Ask Ex-Presidents For A Loan
As the world ponders the merits and effectiveness of a $800 Billion bailout plan, and investors large and small wonder if a Great Depression 2.0 is on its way, it seems timely to discuss how much money our living former presidents are making. I don't mean making like how regular citizens make money, but making from the United States government. That means from taxpayers.
Their retirement allotment comes to $191,000 a year. But they are also entitled to much, much more in the form of payments for a wide array of services. Things like postage, office supplies, travel, office rent, etc. Which doesn't really sound that nefarious on the surface. Until, that is, you see what those presidential telephones are costing us.
George Bush, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton spent $904,000 on telephone service, and $7 million on rent. During that time, Bill Clinton received the lion share in those categories, asking for $420,000 for telephone and $3.2 million for office rent.
In all, the price tag since 2001 for the three living presidents is $17.5 million dollars. Jimmy Carter cost $4 million, George Bush cost $5.5 million, and Bill Clinton cost $8 million. This, despite the fact that all are millionaires.
So as politicians and citizens alike ponder the Main Street vs. Wall Street debate, and wonder why the government is giving hundreds of billions of dollars to huge banks, perhaps we could also discuss why we're giving our ex-presidents such a substantial bail out of their own.
Their retirement allotment comes to $191,000 a year. But they are also entitled to much, much more in the form of payments for a wide array of services. Things like postage, office supplies, travel, office rent, etc. Which doesn't really sound that nefarious on the surface. Until, that is, you see what those presidential telephones are costing us.
George Bush, Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton spent $904,000 on telephone service, and $7 million on rent. During that time, Bill Clinton received the lion share in those categories, asking for $420,000 for telephone and $3.2 million for office rent.
In all, the price tag since 2001 for the three living presidents is $17.5 million dollars. Jimmy Carter cost $4 million, George Bush cost $5.5 million, and Bill Clinton cost $8 million. This, despite the fact that all are millionaires.
So as politicians and citizens alike ponder the Main Street vs. Wall Street debate, and wonder why the government is giving hundreds of billions of dollars to huge banks, perhaps we could also discuss why we're giving our ex-presidents such a substantial bail out of their own.
Monday, October 06, 2008
Biden's Low Expectations
I read the following comment on a blog last week, and thought it share-worthy:
I think Biden Rocked!
He came in with low expectations. Especially after the Couric interview where he had a huge gaffe of explaining that when the Stock Market crashed, FDR got on TV. I was fully expecting a gaffe-fest from him but he was able to overcome this with clearly rehearsed lines from his advisors.
But he was able to sidestep many direct questions by Ifill choosing instead to offer rebuttals to Palin’s arguments or further explain his ticket’s position.
I wasn’t that impressed how he kept using the same words over and over again like “fundamental” and how he kept having to repeat things. He did do a good job relating to the middle class by mentioning Scranton repeatedly, which we all know is a blue-collar, middle-class town.
He was only incoherent one time, trying to explain the McCain tax plan, and he made one big gaffe when he said the U.S. and France kicked Hezbollah out of Lebanon . But I wouldn’t hold all of his Foreign Relations experience against him.
Friday, October 03, 2008
Ads From The Debate
The ads using material from the debate last night are already out. Here's the first two that popped up on my youtube account:
First, from Obama,
And from McCain,
First, from Obama,
And from McCain,
Juanes - La Noche
So I just recently discovered Juanes. He's a Columbian singer, and while I still don't know a ton about him, I've liked what I've heard so far. Here's a song called "La Noche":
Thursday, October 02, 2008
Joe Biden, Clean & Articulate
There has been much talk lately of Gov. Palin's performance in interviews with Katie Couric and Charles Gibson. With help from Gibson's editors and Couric's anti-female feminism, bloodthirsty Democrats, eager to wash away the stain of their own dirty politics, are crowing about Palin's supposed blunders.
In light of this, I thought it instructional to point out her counterpart's own blunders. Blunders which have earned him the nickname, gaffe-o-matic.
Joe Biden plagiarist:
Joe Biden Indians & Dunkin Donuts:
Joe Biden Clean and Articulate:
Joe Biden forgetting TVs and an FDR presidency didn't exist in 1929:
Joe Biden tells wheelchair bound man to "stand up":
Joe Biden's fake helicopter story:
And that's leaving out how he slammed his running mate's campaign commercial without even having seen it, accidentally opposed his running mate's position on the AIG bailout, and telling a supporter that he and Obama aren't supporting clean coal when in fact Obama is - and that just days earlier he gave a speech in favor of using more coal.
I realize Biden doesn't think the presidency lends itself to on the job training, but you'd think after 20+ years in the Senate he'd have the VP thing down.
In light of this, I thought it instructional to point out her counterpart's own blunders. Blunders which have earned him the nickname, gaffe-o-matic.
Joe Biden plagiarist:
Joe Biden Indians & Dunkin Donuts:
Joe Biden Clean and Articulate:
Joe Biden forgetting TVs and an FDR presidency didn't exist in 1929:
Joe Biden tells wheelchair bound man to "stand up":
Joe Biden's fake helicopter story:
And that's leaving out how he slammed his running mate's campaign commercial without even having seen it, accidentally opposed his running mate's position on the AIG bailout, and telling a supporter that he and Obama aren't supporting clean coal when in fact Obama is - and that just days earlier he gave a speech in favor of using more coal.
I realize Biden doesn't think the presidency lends itself to on the job training, but you'd think after 20+ years in the Senate he'd have the VP thing down.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Being A Mormon Blogger Is Cool: Redux
A few months ago I wrote about the many Mormon-related search terms that brought people to my blog. I have two addendums to add to that post.
First, no, Sarah Palin is not a Mormon. She was born in Idaho, but as we found out with Larry Craig, that doesn't always translate to LDS Church membership.
Second, I just got an awesome comment to that previous cool post, and I wanted to share it with all my readers.
First, no, Sarah Palin is not a Mormon. She was born in Idaho, but as we found out with Larry Craig, that doesn't always translate to LDS Church membership.
Second, I just got an awesome comment to that previous cool post, and I wanted to share it with all my readers.
"I am very concerned about the mormon church and their treatment of non-momorns in utah. I mean I have heard dozens of horror stories of non-mormons being cheated, lied to an falsly imprisoned (on trumped up charges)simply for not being a mormon. I mean the fact is mormonism is a cult and there needs to be laws passed to protect non-mormons in utah. I hate mormons who try to force themselves on us. I wish to God that jospeh smith had never been born or at least had castrated himself. Anyone who think that God is on their side is dangerous as hell."I'm guessing this guy didn't vote for Mitt Romney. Wait till he actually visits Utah and finds out we all have horns. That'll be fun.
It's September 30th, Do You Know Where Your Paycheck Is?
The $700 billion bailout failed yesterday. As of last Friday, Utah's congressmen were officially unsure of how they would vote. Here's the roll call from yesterday morning:
Rob Bishop: Nay
Jim Matheson: Nay
Chris Cannon: Yea
Two of these congressmen are up for reelection this year, and one is not. I'm not sure what, if anything, that says about Rep. Cannon's vote.
Last week I posted a link to Harvard economist Greg Mankiw's blog, wherein he posted a note he received from a colleague asking for his view on the bailout. Mankiw was a bit wishy washy, but ultimately decided that if Ben Bernanke thought it was wise, then it must be wise.
But I want to highlight something in the letter Mankiw received:
Rob Bishop: Nay
Jim Matheson: Nay
Chris Cannon: Yea
Two of these congressmen are up for reelection this year, and one is not. I'm not sure what, if anything, that says about Rep. Cannon's vote.
Last week I posted a link to Harvard economist Greg Mankiw's blog, wherein he posted a note he received from a colleague asking for his view on the bailout. Mankiw was a bit wishy washy, but ultimately decided that if Ben Bernanke thought it was wise, then it must be wise.
But I want to highlight something in the letter Mankiw received:
"A LOT of payrolls get paid at the end of the month. The next for many companies is September 30. Three different people with hugely relevant knowledge said to me today words to the effect of: "Why don't your economist buddies want [insert fortune 100 company/companies here] to be able to pay their employees on Tuesday. If Washington doesn't do something now, they won't be able to". That just scared the hell out of me. I can go into more details if you like, but all of them involve the four horsemen of the apocalypse."That was written last week, in the midst of the "give me $700 Billion or the economy gets it" rhetoric. Are there payrolls not being met today?
Monday, September 29, 2008
Thoughts on Baseball, Fantasy & Otherwise
Last time we discussed my fantasy baseball prowess, I was tanking in both leagues - one team was in last place, the other in 6th. That was midway through June. The regular season just ended, so both of my teams have now finished playing. Here's how they fared.
After completely tanking the first couple months, my last place team played .500 ball the rest of the year and climbed out of last. Our 8 team league had two divisions of 4 teams each, and each division took 2 teams to the playoffs. So despite having a poor record, I was still in the playoff hunt. It went down to the wire between me and another team. I had a 2 game lead with 2 to play, both against my rival. It would take an epic fail to miss the playoffs. And epic fail I did. I lost both games, and since I lost the season series to that team, I also lost the tiebreaker and he went to the playoffs and I was sent packing.
But I still had my other league to follow, and I was again making a late charge to the top. This league was rotisserie scoring rather than head to head, so all I had to do was concentrate on specific categories in order to make up ground. My stolen bases were too low, so I added Willy Tavares and rode his 60+ steals to the top half of the league. Sadly, he completely stopped hitting over the last month, and then he got hurt so I fell only 4 steals short of gaining all the points in that category and pulling the leaders down.
My pitching staff finally took shape as Ryan Dempster continued his inexplicably great year, Adam Wainwright came back from the DL and pitched well, and I rode the huge second half comebacks of Roy Oswalt and Brett Meyers. I pieced together a serviceable bullpen by adding Jonathan Broxton and Brad Ziegler to Francisco Cordero and Kerry Wood. My ERA and WHIP finally started dropping, while my wins, saves, and strikeouts climbed. I ended with the most wins and third most saves, and it looked like I was going to catch the leaders in WHIP. But then Brett Meyers 2.0 reverted to the old Brett Meyers we all know for his final two starts and killed that chance. In a last ditch effort, I added Hiroki Kuroda and Jesse Litsch for the last day of the season, hoping they could bring my WHIP down. They did well, but it was too little, too late. I was able to tie the leaders in WHIP, but I couldn't get past that mark.
Going into Sunday's final games, I was 4 points off the overall lead with 5 or 6 categories still in play. I wound up 3 runs, 4 stolen bases, and .01 WHIP percentage points short of first place, finishing in 3rd overall, 2.5 points off the lead.
This was by far the worst showing I've ever had in fantasy sports. But it was a lot of fun.
My other baseball thoughts as the regular season closes:
Albert Pujols is the best player in the game. Period.
Josh Hamilton is the best story of the year. And he's a darn good baseball player too.
Yankees suck!
After completely tanking the first couple months, my last place team played .500 ball the rest of the year and climbed out of last. Our 8 team league had two divisions of 4 teams each, and each division took 2 teams to the playoffs. So despite having a poor record, I was still in the playoff hunt. It went down to the wire between me and another team. I had a 2 game lead with 2 to play, both against my rival. It would take an epic fail to miss the playoffs. And epic fail I did. I lost both games, and since I lost the season series to that team, I also lost the tiebreaker and he went to the playoffs and I was sent packing.
But I still had my other league to follow, and I was again making a late charge to the top. This league was rotisserie scoring rather than head to head, so all I had to do was concentrate on specific categories in order to make up ground. My stolen bases were too low, so I added Willy Tavares and rode his 60+ steals to the top half of the league. Sadly, he completely stopped hitting over the last month, and then he got hurt so I fell only 4 steals short of gaining all the points in that category and pulling the leaders down.
My pitching staff finally took shape as Ryan Dempster continued his inexplicably great year, Adam Wainwright came back from the DL and pitched well, and I rode the huge second half comebacks of Roy Oswalt and Brett Meyers. I pieced together a serviceable bullpen by adding Jonathan Broxton and Brad Ziegler to Francisco Cordero and Kerry Wood. My ERA and WHIP finally started dropping, while my wins, saves, and strikeouts climbed. I ended with the most wins and third most saves, and it looked like I was going to catch the leaders in WHIP. But then Brett Meyers 2.0 reverted to the old Brett Meyers we all know for his final two starts and killed that chance. In a last ditch effort, I added Hiroki Kuroda and Jesse Litsch for the last day of the season, hoping they could bring my WHIP down. They did well, but it was too little, too late. I was able to tie the leaders in WHIP, but I couldn't get past that mark.
Going into Sunday's final games, I was 4 points off the overall lead with 5 or 6 categories still in play. I wound up 3 runs, 4 stolen bases, and .01 WHIP percentage points short of first place, finishing in 3rd overall, 2.5 points off the lead.
This was by far the worst showing I've ever had in fantasy sports. But it was a lot of fun.
My other baseball thoughts as the regular season closes:
Albert Pujols is the best player in the game. Period.
Josh Hamilton is the best story of the year. And he's a darn good baseball player too.
Yankees suck!
Friday, September 26, 2008
Greg Mankiw Weighs In
If I were a member of Congress...
An economics professor I know who teaches at a leading business school (who prefers anonymity, as he is still untenured) sends me a critique of our profession and a plea:
Dear Greg,
This is a strange email, but these are strange times.
I saw that your name was absent from the Shimer/Kashyap/etc initiated "letter" to the speaker and senate pro tempore. I don't know if that is reflective of your view about the appropriate course of action or not. But as a person with a very large microphone at your disposal I wanted to share the following, which is informed by my experience in the private sector prior to graduate school.
Let me preface this by saying that my personal view is that Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson are very, very smart people who have better information than anyone who signed that letter, and that questioning their view to the point where it is used by senators to justify inaction is reckless at best--and ideologically driven white-anting at worst.
But I digress. A LOT of payrolls get paid at the end of the month. The next for many companies is September 30. Three different people with hugely relevant knowledge said to me today words to the effect of: "Why don't your economist buddies want [insert fortune 100 company/companies here] to be able to pay their employees on Tuesday. If Washington doesn't do something now, they won't be able to". That just scared the hell out of me. I can go into more details if you like, but all of them involve the four horsemen of the apocalypse.
As I say, I don't know what your view is. And if it is that the problems with the "bailout" exceed the benefits then I obviously respect that.
But I am terrified about the consequences of inaction--and our profession seems to be advocating just that. If you do favor action then please avail yourself of your microphone. If not, free disposal!
Best,
[name withheld]
What is my opinion about all this? I am of two minds about the complex situation we find ourselves in.
On the one hand, I share many of the concerns of the letter signers and other critics of the Treasury plan.
On the other hand, I know Ben Bernanke well. Ben is at least as smart as any of the economists who signed that letter or are complaining on blogs or editorial pages about the proposed policy. Moreover, Ben is far better informed than the critics. The Fed staff includes some of the best policy economists around. In his capacity as Fed chair, Ben understands the situation, as well as the pros, cons, and feasibility of the alternative policy options, better than any professor sitting alone in his office possibly could.
If I were a member of Congress, I would sit down with Ben, privately, to get his candid view. If he thinks this is the right thing to do, I would put my qualms aside and follow his advice.
An economics professor I know who teaches at a leading business school (who prefers anonymity, as he is still untenured) sends me a critique of our profession and a plea:
Dear Greg,
This is a strange email, but these are strange times.
I saw that your name was absent from the Shimer/Kashyap/etc initiated "letter" to the speaker and senate pro tempore. I don't know if that is reflective of your view about the appropriate course of action or not. But as a person with a very large microphone at your disposal I wanted to share the following, which is informed by my experience in the private sector prior to graduate school.
Let me preface this by saying that my personal view is that Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson are very, very smart people who have better information than anyone who signed that letter, and that questioning their view to the point where it is used by senators to justify inaction is reckless at best--and ideologically driven white-anting at worst.
But I digress. A LOT of payrolls get paid at the end of the month. The next for many companies is September 30. Three different people with hugely relevant knowledge said to me today words to the effect of: "Why don't your economist buddies want [insert fortune 100 company/companies here] to be able to pay their employees on Tuesday. If Washington doesn't do something now, they won't be able to". That just scared the hell out of me. I can go into more details if you like, but all of them involve the four horsemen of the apocalypse.
As I say, I don't know what your view is. And if it is that the problems with the "bailout" exceed the benefits then I obviously respect that.
But I am terrified about the consequences of inaction--and our profession seems to be advocating just that. If you do favor action then please avail yourself of your microphone. If not, free disposal!
Best,
[name withheld]
What is my opinion about all this? I am of two minds about the complex situation we find ourselves in.
On the one hand, I share many of the concerns of the letter signers and other critics of the Treasury plan.
On the other hand, I know Ben Bernanke well. Ben is at least as smart as any of the economists who signed that letter or are complaining on blogs or editorial pages about the proposed policy. Moreover, Ben is far better informed than the critics. The Fed staff includes some of the best policy economists around. In his capacity as Fed chair, Ben understands the situation, as well as the pros, cons, and feasibility of the alternative policy options, better than any professor sitting alone in his office possibly could.
If I were a member of Congress, I would sit down with Ben, privately, to get his candid view. If he thinks this is the right thing to do, I would put my qualms aside and follow his advice.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
The Motley Fool Weighs In
Dear Fools:
We need your help.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has put together a plan that is actively under debate and allows the Treasury to invest in assets that are crushing bank balance sheets. We view this plan as being an important step in allowing the global financial system to recapitalize itself. We agree with financial intellectual titans Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, as well as both presidential candidates, that the Paulson Plan needs to be passed and will benefit Main Street.
We believe that if the Paulson Plan is done correctly, American taxpayers will profit not only from the return of lending capacity to our banks, but also from these troubled investments. However, the plan should embrace the tenets of free-market capitalism. The government should demand equity stakes in the banks.
We think taxpayers deserve to benefit from a deal soundly rooted in free-market principles. We, the undersigned, encourage you to call the people who represent you in the House and Senate and demand that the approved deal include provisions for equity ownership. Go to www.house.gov and www.senate.gov to find the phone numbers for your elected representatives.
Finally, even though these are extraordinary times, we stand by our belief that the best way to build long-term wealth is through equity ownership. Just look at who is doing a lot of buying of late -- Warren Buffett.
We encourage you to take a few minutes -- now! -- to call your elected officials and let them know that there needs to be an equity component for taxpayers.
Onward,
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Scott Schedler, President, The Motley Fool
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P.S. We have opened a discussion board where Fools can gather to talk about this important issue. Please come and share your opinions.
We need your help.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has put together a plan that is actively under debate and allows the Treasury to invest in assets that are crushing bank balance sheets. We view this plan as being an important step in allowing the global financial system to recapitalize itself. We agree with financial intellectual titans Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, as well as both presidential candidates, that the Paulson Plan needs to be passed and will benefit Main Street.
We believe that if the Paulson Plan is done correctly, American taxpayers will profit not only from the return of lending capacity to our banks, but also from these troubled investments. However, the plan should embrace the tenets of free-market capitalism. The government should demand equity stakes in the banks.
We think taxpayers deserve to benefit from a deal soundly rooted in free-market principles. We, the undersigned, encourage you to call the people who represent you in the House and Senate and demand that the approved deal include provisions for equity ownership. Go to www.house.gov and www.senate.gov to find the phone numbers for your elected representatives.
Finally, even though these are extraordinary times, we stand by our belief that the best way to build long-term wealth is through equity ownership. Just look at who is doing a lot of buying of late -- Warren Buffett.
We encourage you to take a few minutes -- now! -- to call your elected officials and let them know that there needs to be an equity component for taxpayers.
Onward,
Tom Gardner, CEO and Co-Founder, The Motley Fool
Scott Schedler, President, The Motley Fool
Bill Mann, Senior Advisor, Motley Fool Hidden Gems, Pay Dirt, and Global Gains
P.S. We have opened a discussion board where Fools can gather to talk about this important issue. Please come and share your opinions.
An Open Letter to Suzy Shuster's Open Letter to Tina Fey
You loved Tina Fey's Saturday Night Live impersonation of Governor Sarah Palin. You think it is directly responsible for Palin's supposed drop in popularity. Because of this, you want Fey to don the Palin costume every Saturday night until the election.
You don't like Sarah Palin. You think she is unqualified to be vice president. She "scares" you. But rather than push to publicize the reasons for your fear (assuming you have valid, rational reasons), you push to make a comedy sketch show a partisan election changer.
Which is nothing new of course. Comedic commentary during campaigns has a long history. I remember well SNL's skits involving Bob Dole, George Bush, and Ross Perot. They even did some with Bill Clinton, but those mostly revolved around his "improprieties", and we all know that doesn't matter.
And SNL made a splash earlier this year with a skit lampooning the media's love affair with Barack Obama. Funny, now that the primaries are over they don't seem to be doing too many skits like that any more. It was around the same time that Joe Biden decided the presidency was a position that lent itself to on the job training.
But what is it about her that's so scary, that causes readers of the Huffington Post to be so "scared out of our wits" that they bring in their big gun celebrities? While begging Tina Fey to continue her electioneering, you write,
That's why feminists like Ms. Shuster are lining up to trash Gov. Palin. She's such a hypocrite for claiming to be a woman when clearly authentic women must be abortion advocates. We can't have a woman in the White House that isn't actually a woman!
Thank you, Ms. Shuster, for clearing that up for me. Now I understand that, like most things, voting for an issue is only "scary" when one side does it.
You don't like Sarah Palin. You think she is unqualified to be vice president. She "scares" you. But rather than push to publicize the reasons for your fear (assuming you have valid, rational reasons), you push to make a comedy sketch show a partisan election changer.
Which is nothing new of course. Comedic commentary during campaigns has a long history. I remember well SNL's skits involving Bob Dole, George Bush, and Ross Perot. They even did some with Bill Clinton, but those mostly revolved around his "improprieties", and we all know that doesn't matter.
And SNL made a splash earlier this year with a skit lampooning the media's love affair with Barack Obama. Funny, now that the primaries are over they don't seem to be doing too many skits like that any more. It was around the same time that Joe Biden decided the presidency was a position that lent itself to on the job training.
But what is it about her that's so scary, that causes readers of the Huffington Post to be so "scared out of our wits" that they bring in their big gun celebrities? While begging Tina Fey to continue her electioneering, you write,
And I think its your responsibility to do so, or else we face the consequence of a woman in the White House who would strive to take away your daughter Alice's right to choose along with every other woman's in this country.Ohhhhh. So that's it. You're a "Single Issue Voter". You're one of those people that gets lambasted by celebrities, bloggers, and news media types for voting for a candidate based largely on a single issue: abortion. Except those lambasters generally save their ridicule for those that vote against abortion. That's the only type of Single Issue Voter that's completely stupid and deserving of ridicule.
That's why feminists like Ms. Shuster are lining up to trash Gov. Palin. She's such a hypocrite for claiming to be a woman when clearly authentic women must be abortion advocates. We can't have a woman in the White House that isn't actually a woman!
Thank you, Ms. Shuster, for clearing that up for me. Now I understand that, like most things, voting for an issue is only "scary" when one side does it.
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
"It wasn't America in a quagmire in Iraq. It was Al Qaeda."
From Orson Scott Card, a truly interesting editorial.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Surprise! MoveOn.org's Facts Are Wrong
I hope you haven't already written that letter...
Since MoveOn.org (and pretty much everyone else) didn't properly vet their choices of attack lines, let's look at the anti-Palin claims one by one:
1. Palin recently said that the war in Iraq is "God's task."
Here's what she really said,
2. Palin has actively sought the support of the fringe Alaska Independence Party.
If by actively sought you mean "never been a member of", then sure.
3. Palin wants to teach creationism in public schools.
Flat out, unconditional lie. In an article titled, "Palin has not pushed creation science as governor" Palin is quoted as saying in 2006,
4. Palin doesn't believe that humans contribute to global warming.
Here's the quote they're using,
5. Palin has close ties to Big Oil.
The source for this? ThinkProgress. TP's source? An Anchorage Daily News story during Palin's run for governor in 2006. The problem? TP didn't actually read the story. It's about an oil company called Veco. A company that has long played a heavy role in Alaska politics. A company that supported Gov. Palin's opponent in the primary and produced a newspaper editorial space that constantly criticized her. A company that gave her exactly zero dollars during her campaign.
And this is found in a story which says, "Palin often draws heat from the oil industry".
Huh. It's so weird that MoveOn/ThinkProgress would take that as having close ties to Big Oil.
5. Palin is extremely anti-choice.
For the uninitiated, "anti-choice" is code for "I think 100% genetically human beings should have more human rights than a Chimpanzee."
6. Palin opposes comprehensive sex-ed in public schools.
I wonder what they mean by "comprehensive". Anyway, again the source is ThinkProgress, which links to a Politico story containing this quote,
7. As mayor, Palin tried to ban books from the library.
In a factcheck.org article titled, "Sliming Palin" we find,
8. She DID support the Bridge to Nowhere
Yep.
And then changed her mind. Which, if we decide that's an immediate disqualification for a presidential ticket, I think it safe to say we can just call the whole election off this year. Along with every election in the history of the United States. As with the experience angle, I don't know that it makes for good strategy for Democrats to attack on the grounds of "changing one's mind".
So there you go. That's the list that makes Governor Sarah Palin so scary. Incidentally, I haven't received any new lists since this one was emailed to me, so I can only assume this is the best they've got. And it's all pretty much a bunch of ill-researched garbage.
Which reminds me. When I first posted this list, I was told that it was completely true, and that
Since MoveOn.org (and pretty much everyone else) didn't properly vet their choices of attack lines, let's look at the anti-Palin claims one by one:
1. Palin recently said that the war in Iraq is "God's task."
Here's what she really said,
"Pray for our military men and women who are striving to do what is right. Also, for this country, that our leaders, our national leaders, are sending [U.S. soldiers] out on a task that is from God. That's what we have to make sure that we're praying for, that there is a plan and that that plan is God's plan."Pray that our leaders are sending our soldiers out on a task that is from God. Pray that our nation acts in accordance with God's plan. I've said that prayer myself. Sorry MoveOn, you'll have to do better than that.
2. Palin has actively sought the support of the fringe Alaska Independence Party.
If by actively sought you mean "never been a member of", then sure.
3. Palin wants to teach creationism in public schools.
Flat out, unconditional lie. In an article titled, "Palin has not pushed creation science as governor" Palin is quoted as saying in 2006,
"I don't think there should be a prohibition against debate if it comes up in class. It doesn't have to be part of the curriculum,"
4. Palin doesn't believe that humans contribute to global warming.
Here's the quote they're using,
Q:What is your take on global warming and how is it affecting our country?Here's what she did as governor,
A: A changing environment will affect Alaska more than any other state, because of our location. I'm not one though who would attribute it to being man-made.
"A few months into her term, Palin directed a group of state commissioners to develop a strategy for addressing climate change. State lawmakers had already formed a climate commission, but the administration up until then had nothing.
"'I'm not an Al Gore, doom-and-gloom environmentalist blaming the changes in our climate on human activity,' Palin said Monday, 'but I'm not going to put my head in the sand and pretend there aren't changes.'"
5. Palin has close ties to Big Oil.
The source for this? ThinkProgress. TP's source? An Anchorage Daily News story during Palin's run for governor in 2006. The problem? TP didn't actually read the story. It's about an oil company called Veco. A company that has long played a heavy role in Alaska politics. A company that supported Gov. Palin's opponent in the primary and produced a newspaper editorial space that constantly criticized her. A company that gave her exactly zero dollars during her campaign.
And this is found in a story which says, "Palin often draws heat from the oil industry".
Huh. It's so weird that MoveOn/ThinkProgress would take that as having close ties to Big Oil.
5. Palin is extremely anti-choice.
For the uninitiated, "anti-choice" is code for "I think 100% genetically human beings should have more human rights than a Chimpanzee."
6. Palin opposes comprehensive sex-ed in public schools.
I wonder what they mean by "comprehensive". Anyway, again the source is ThinkProgress, which links to a Politico story containing this quote,
"explicit sex-ed programs will not find my support."But they neglected to report the LA Times story which shows Gov. Palin saying the following,
"I'm pro-contraception, and I think kids who may not hear about it at home should hear about it in other avenues,"
7. As mayor, Palin tried to ban books from the library.
In a factcheck.org article titled, "Sliming Palin" we find,
One accusation claims then-Mayor Palin threatened to fire Wasilla’s librarian for refusing to ban books from the town library. Some versions of the rumor come complete with a list of the books that Palin allegedly attempted to ban. Actually, Palin never asked that books be banned; no books were actually banned; and many of the books on the list that Palin supposedly wanted to censor weren't even in print at the time, proving that the list is a fabrication.
8. She DID support the Bridge to Nowhere
Yep.
And then changed her mind. Which, if we decide that's an immediate disqualification for a presidential ticket, I think it safe to say we can just call the whole election off this year. Along with every election in the history of the United States. As with the experience angle, I don't know that it makes for good strategy for Democrats to attack on the grounds of "changing one's mind".
So there you go. That's the list that makes Governor Sarah Palin so scary. Incidentally, I haven't received any new lists since this one was emailed to me, so I can only assume this is the best they've got. And it's all pretty much a bunch of ill-researched garbage.
Which reminds me. When I first posted this list, I was told that it was completely true, and that
"the bullet points here certainly are not "rumor-mongering". All of them can be easily researched and proven accurate in a few moments, from established mainstream sources."Well, that "easily researched" thing turned out to be correct. But the whole "proven accurate" thing, not so much.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
The Democratic Party, Both Local & National, Proves I Made The Right Decision
I've generally considered myself a moderate. I've voted for Republicans and Democrats alike, never aligning myself too closely with either party. But over the last couple of years I have gotten the inclination to be more active within a party. And for much of that time I flirted very heavily with the Democratic Party. The thinking was that out west in Idaho and Utah, the Democrats can be quite moderate, and since they are few in numbers it's easier to be involved and be heard. In fact, many Democrats in Utah are Dems solely for that reason. However, it is the fact that the local Democratic chapters are so different than the national party that prevented me from jumping in with both feet. It didn't make sense to affiliate with a national movement with which I had so many philosophical differences, despite the example of a few Democratic congressmen that I admire. Nevertheless, my flirtation inched ever closer to a full fledged relationship.
That is, until I saw how despised by their own party those congressmen I admired were. I began to realize the "Big Tent" wasn't all that large after all. Consequently, my flirtation began to wane. But what has occurred over the last couple of weeks was the final nail in the coffin.
From the very moment it was announced, Governor Palin's nomination has made the Democratic Party go absolutely insane.
Here it is, the party of "rational" thought, a party which proclaimed its "Big Tent" appeal, its work for women and minorities, its position as voice for the little guy. And it has thrown that false facade completely aside to rear its ugly, partisan, sexist, gutter-politics head as it rushes to throw garbage at McCain's vice presidential pick in hopes something, anything, might stick.
For instance, on the very day Gov. Palin was announced as the candidate, Daily Kos posted a "story" claiming her infant Down Syndrome baby wasn't hers, but was her daughter's instead, and that the Palin's pulled their daughter out of school in order to hide the pregnancy and claim the baby as their own. They even posted links to pictures which "proved" that Palin was waaay too skinny to have been pregnant. Her teenage daughter on the other hand, plenty of "baby bump" potential there. Now, some might argue that Kos users can post anything they want, and the Kos site can't be held accountable for every crackpot user. But this particular user also put a poll with the story, asking if this sad, despicable, rumor-mongering story should continue. Over 22,000 people voted, and 64% of them said yes.
Sadly, Logan's own KVNU blog posted the same story - slightly less accusatory, but swallowing the Kos rumors hook, line, and sinker nonetheless.
It's an example of how the party faithful actually aren't all that different, whether they be a national Democrat or a local version. So while national commentators have been outlandishly juvenile, their local faithful have been much more disappointingly so.
Let's take a stroll down memory lane and revisit some of the things said about Governor Palin in the days following her announcement.
Radio host and TV commentator Alan Colmes speculates the Palin's first child was conceived out of wedlock. That fancy bit of journalism followed his breathless reporting that "17-Year-Old Bristol Palin Five Months Pregnant".
Sadly, local blog "One Utah", on day 3 of Gov Palin's nomination, jumps on the bandwagon, positing "her 17 year old unmarried daughter is pregnant (I heard whispers the father is 24)". Shockingly, he's not.
CNN reported a National Enquirer story claiming Governor Palin had an affair with her husband's former business partner. Andrew Sullivan excitedly posts that a former business partner filed an emergency motion to seal his divorce papers. Those fun Daily Kos-ites picked up the story as well, hoping beyond hope that it were true. Shockingly, it's not.
But that didn't stop local blogger Richard Warnick from spreading the same lies.
Even my own commenters fall into the trap of believing every last petty rumor written on a website somewhere. Democracy Lover offered up this gem as proof that Governor Palin is scaaaary - not to mention racist. But, once again, it's a complete fabrication. Just more garbage throwing in hopes something will stick.
But even if we were to put aside the muckraking and rumor mongering, the sexism on display by the Democrats, and the Obama campaign, is astounding.
Take this image, for instance. Or Richard Warnick complaining Gov. Palin is from the pages of Vogue. Or this image. There are countless others. All just as crass.
South Carolina Democratic chairwoman Carol Fowler said Governor Palin's "primary qualification seems to be that she hasn’t had an abortion.” She later apologized.
"Obama adviser" Anita Dunn said, "She's new, and a good performer of that speech that she reads, but that doesn't necessarily translate into votes eight weeks from now,"
Reclusive Leftist is not impressed:
It's Obama's VP pick, Joe Biden.
It's even Obama himself.
It's the rampant misogyny that was on display throughout the primaries, and has reappeared with Gov Palin's nomination.
It's been quite disheartening to watch it unfold. Even more so to realize that it's not just the weirdo liberal blog sites behaving this way, but it's prominent national Democrats. Worse, it's local Utah Democrats.
So I will continue to vote bi-partisanly, based on individual candidates and races. But whatever moderate high ground the Democratic Party may have once held, is now no more.
That is, until I saw how despised by their own party those congressmen I admired were. I began to realize the "Big Tent" wasn't all that large after all. Consequently, my flirtation began to wane. But what has occurred over the last couple of weeks was the final nail in the coffin.
From the very moment it was announced, Governor Palin's nomination has made the Democratic Party go absolutely insane.
Here it is, the party of "rational" thought, a party which proclaimed its "Big Tent" appeal, its work for women and minorities, its position as voice for the little guy. And it has thrown that false facade completely aside to rear its ugly, partisan, sexist, gutter-politics head as it rushes to throw garbage at McCain's vice presidential pick in hopes something, anything, might stick.
For instance, on the very day Gov. Palin was announced as the candidate, Daily Kos posted a "story" claiming her infant Down Syndrome baby wasn't hers, but was her daughter's instead, and that the Palin's pulled their daughter out of school in order to hide the pregnancy and claim the baby as their own. They even posted links to pictures which "proved" that Palin was waaay too skinny to have been pregnant. Her teenage daughter on the other hand, plenty of "baby bump" potential there. Now, some might argue that Kos users can post anything they want, and the Kos site can't be held accountable for every crackpot user. But this particular user also put a poll with the story, asking if this sad, despicable, rumor-mongering story should continue. Over 22,000 people voted, and 64% of them said yes.
Sadly, Logan's own KVNU blog posted the same story - slightly less accusatory, but swallowing the Kos rumors hook, line, and sinker nonetheless.
It's an example of how the party faithful actually aren't all that different, whether they be a national Democrat or a local version. So while national commentators have been outlandishly juvenile, their local faithful have been much more disappointingly so.
Let's take a stroll down memory lane and revisit some of the things said about Governor Palin in the days following her announcement.
Radio host and TV commentator Alan Colmes speculates the Palin's first child was conceived out of wedlock. That fancy bit of journalism followed his breathless reporting that "17-Year-Old Bristol Palin Five Months Pregnant".
Sadly, local blog "One Utah", on day 3 of Gov Palin's nomination, jumps on the bandwagon, positing "her 17 year old unmarried daughter is pregnant (I heard whispers the father is 24)". Shockingly, he's not.
CNN reported a National Enquirer story claiming Governor Palin had an affair with her husband's former business partner. Andrew Sullivan excitedly posts that a former business partner filed an emergency motion to seal his divorce papers. Those fun Daily Kos-ites picked up the story as well, hoping beyond hope that it were true. Shockingly, it's not.
But that didn't stop local blogger Richard Warnick from spreading the same lies.
Even my own commenters fall into the trap of believing every last petty rumor written on a website somewhere. Democracy Lover offered up this gem as proof that Governor Palin is scaaaary - not to mention racist. But, once again, it's a complete fabrication. Just more garbage throwing in hopes something will stick.
But even if we were to put aside the muckraking and rumor mongering, the sexism on display by the Democrats, and the Obama campaign, is astounding.
Take this image, for instance. Or Richard Warnick complaining Gov. Palin is from the pages of Vogue. Or this image. There are countless others. All just as crass.
South Carolina Democratic chairwoman Carol Fowler said Governor Palin's "primary qualification seems to be that she hasn’t had an abortion.” She later apologized.
"Obama adviser" Anita Dunn said, "She's new, and a good performer of that speech that she reads, but that doesn't necessarily translate into votes eight weeks from now,"
Reclusive Leftist is not impressed:
A good performer of that speech she reads. Sarah Palin is the goddamn Governor of Alaska. She’s a crack politician who has made her own way. She is not some blow-dried twit on cable news. And of course Obama trots out a woman to spew this garbage. Irony overload: you know how everyone on the left likes to say that Palin is a typical anti-woman conservative, the type of successful woman who’s ready to stick it to other women instead of helping to raise us all up?But it's not just the women staffers saying it.
Sounds to me like a perfect description of the women on Obama’s staff.
It's Obama's VP pick, Joe Biden.
It's even Obama himself.
It's the rampant misogyny that was on display throughout the primaries, and has reappeared with Gov Palin's nomination.
It's been quite disheartening to watch it unfold. Even more so to realize that it's not just the weirdo liberal blog sites behaving this way, but it's prominent national Democrats. Worse, it's local Utah Democrats.
So I will continue to vote bi-partisanly, based on individual candidates and races. But whatever moderate high ground the Democratic Party may have once held, is now no more.
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